Nigeria’s young people are often discussed as though they were a danger waiting to happen. Politicians warn about unemployed graduates, restless youths, street protests, crime, migration and insecurity. The expression “youth bulge” is repeated so often that the young themselves begin to sound like the problem.
They are not.
A large population of young people is neither a blessing nor a curse by itself. It is a reservoir of energy, intelligence, creativity and labour. What it becomes depends on what a country does with it. Give young people education, skills, decent work and a voice in public affairs, and they can drive national renewal. Shut them out of schools, jobs and decision-making, and frustration will grow.
The danger, therefore, is not Nigeria’s youth bulge. The danger is bad policy.
The United Nations Population Fund estimated Nigeria’s population at about 237.5 million in 2025. UNICEF has also reported that roughly 63 per cent of Nigerians are under the age of 25 [UNFPA, Nigeria Population Dashboard, 2025; UNICEF Nigeria, Connecting Every Child to Digital Learning, 2025].
This is an extraordinary national asset. Nigeria has millions of young minds capable of building businesses, producing food, teaching children, caring for the sick, developing technology, creating music and films, constructing homes and solving problems that older generations have been unable to resolve.
But this opportunity will not remain open forever.
A youthful population can produce what economists call a demographic dividend. This happens when a country has a large working-age population that is healthy, educated, skilled and productively employed. With more people working, producing and paying taxes, the economy can grow faster and families can improve their living standards.
The dividend, however, is not automatic. A young population does not become productive simply because it is large. Without good schools, healthcare, jobs, security and responsible government, a demographic opportunity can become a national burden.
Nigeria is already feeling this pressure. The World Bank estimates that about 3.5 million people enter the Nigerian labour force every year [World Bank, Nigeria Country Overview]. That means the economy must create millions of new opportunities every year simply to prevent the employment crisis from becoming worse.
The official unemployment figures do not tell the whole story.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, unemployment among Nigerians aged 15 to 24 stood at 8.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2024. The same report found that 14.4 per cent of young people were not in employment, education or training. It also showed that 92.7 per cent of employment was informal, 84 per cent of workers were self-employed and only 16 per cent were in wage employment [National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria Labour Force Survey Q1 2024].
On paper, a person may be counted as employed after doing only a small amount of work for pay or profit during the period surveyed. In real life, that person may be struggling to survive on irregular earnings with no contract, pension, health insurance or hope of advancement.
A university graduate selling phone accessories by the roadside may be officially employed. A trained electrician who gets work twice a month may also be employed. So may a young woman helping in a family business without reliable pay. The statistics record economic activity, but they do not always reveal whether the work provides dignity or security.
Nigeria does not merely need more people doing something. It needs more people doing productive work that pays enough to support a decent life.
Government cannot employ every young person. It should not try. Its duty is to create the conditions in which farmers, manufacturers, traders, professionals and businesses can grow and employ others.
Reliable electricity is a youth employment policy. So are good roads, affordable internet, safe communities, functioning ports, access to credit and predictable taxation.
Every prolonged power failure increases the cost of production and makes it harder for a business to hire another worker. Every unsafe road separates young farmers from their markets. Every unofficial levy weakens a small enterprise before it can employ a second or third person. Every security crisis drives investment away from communities that desperately need jobs.
This is why youth employment cannot be solved through occasional training schemes and the distribution of sewing machines, motorcycles or laptops. Training matters, but training without a real market is only preparation for disappointment.
A young person may learn coding, tailoring, welding or poultry farming. But what happens afterwards? Is electricity available? Can the person obtain affordable credit? Are customers able to buy the product? Is there access to land, equipment, transportation and reliable internet? Is there a recognised certificate to prove competence? Can the business survive multiple taxes and unstable prices?
A youth programme should not be praised because thousands of people attended its launch or received certificates. It should be judged by how many participants found decent work, increased their income, built surviving businesses or employed other people.
Nigeria must also resist the idea that every young person should become an entrepreneur. Not everyone wants to own a business, and not everyone should have to. A healthy economy needs employers and employees. It needs technicians, nurses, teachers, builders, researchers, administrators, mechanics, farm workers and factory workers. Entrepreneurship must be a genuine opportunity, not an excuse for government’s failure to create an economy that produces jobs.
The education crisis makes the employment challenge even more serious.
In 2024, UNICEF reported that approximately 10.2 million primary-school-age children and another 8.1 million junior-secondary-age children were out of school. It also reported that 74 per cent of children between seven and 14 years lacked basic reading and mathematics skills [UNICEF Nigeria, Immediate Action Needed to Protect Nigeria’s Children and Schools, 2024].
These are not just education figures. They are warnings about Nigeria’s future.
A child who cannot read properly at the age of ten will struggle to understand science, mathematics, technology and civic education later. A child who leaves school without basic skills is more likely to enter adulthood trapped in poverty. Nigeria cannot neglect millions of children today and expect to discover a skilled workforce tomorrow.
Reform must begin with getting children into safe schools and ensuring that they actually learn. Governments should publish clear information showing how many children are enrolled, how many attend regularly and how many can read, write and perform basic mathematics at the expected level.
Counting classrooms is not enough. Counting children who can learn is what matters.
Nigeria must also stop pretending that university is the only respectable road to success. Technical colleges, apprenticeships, nursing schools, agricultural institutes and vocational programmes should offer recognised paths to skilled work.
A certified electrician, welder, builder, machinist, solar installer or automotive technician contributes real value to society. Such workers should be properly trained, tested, certified and respected. Their qualifications should be recognised across the country so that a skill learned in Aba, Kano, Ilorin or Benin City can open doors anywhere in Nigeria.
Public works can play an important role. Large government contracts for roads, housing, railways, hospitals and power projects should include clear requirements for paid apprenticeships and entry-level jobs. Contractors receiving public money should be expected to train and employ Nigerians, especially young people from the communities where the projects are located.
The National Youth Service Corps should also become a stronger bridge between education and employment. Corps members could receive accredited professional training, work on properly supervised community projects and complete courses in digital skills, financial literacy and civic responsibility. Employers could receive carefully monitored incentives for retaining corps members in real jobs after service.
But jobs and education are only part of the answer. Young Nigerians also need a voice.
Nigeria’s political system is happy to use young people during elections. They fill campaign grounds, promote candidates online, organise rallies, defend political parties and vote. Yet when candidates are selected, budgets are written and appointments are made, young people are often pushed aside.
They are invited to provide political energy but rarely allowed to exercise political power.
The 2018 Not Too Young to Run constitutional amendments lowered the minimum age for contesting the presidency from 40 to 35. They also reduced the minimum age for the House of Representatives and state Houses of Assembly from 30 to 25. The minimum age for governors and senators remained 35 [Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre, President Buhari Signs Constitutional Bill Seeking to Reduce Age Qualification into Elective Offices into Law, 2018].
This was an important reform, but changing the legal age was only the beginning. Young candidates still face high nomination costs, political godfathers, weak internal party democracy, campaign violence and enormous financial barriers.
A person may be legally old enough to contest an election and still have no realistic chance of securing a party ticket.
Political parties should publish the ages and gender of their candidates, executives and delegates. Young people should be included in public boards and advisory councils through open and transparent selection. Legislative committees dealing with education, employment, technology, housing and climate change should consult young Nigerians before decisions are made, not after policies have already been written.
Youth representation must be real. Appointing a few politically connected individuals and calling them representatives of millions is not inclusion.
Government must also protect peaceful civic participation. Young people cannot be told to engage in democracy and then be treated as enemies when they criticise leaders, organise campaigns or join peaceful protests. Journalism, community organising, student activism, public debate and lawful protest are legitimate forms of citizenship.
When peaceful channels are closed, anger does not disappear. It simply searches for another outlet.
This does not mean that unemployment automatically turns young people into criminals or extremists. Most poor and unemployed young people remain peaceful despite great hardship. Violence usually grows from several conditions acting together, including injustice, political manipulation, weak institutions, impunity, local conflict and the presence of criminal networks.
However, exclusion creates vulnerability. When lawful work offers no hope, elections seem meaningless and success appears to depend entirely on connections, criminal groups can offer income, protection, identity and belonging. The solution is not to label young people as security threats. It is to build a society in which lawful opportunity is more available and more rewarding than violence.
Nigeria now needs a national Youth Opportunity Pact. It should not be another beautifully written document launched in Abuja and forgotten. It must contain measurable promises, named responsibilities, firm deadlines and public reporting.
Under such a pact, every state should publish an annual youth opportunity report showing school attendance, learning outcomes, apprenticeship places, job placements, youth earnings, business survival and youth participation in public bodies. The information should be broken down by sex, disability, location and income so that national averages do not conceal inequality.
Every young person leaving secondary school, technical college, university or national service should be offered a realistic pathway into further education, a paid apprenticeship, employment support or carefully designed business assistance within a defined period.
Registering names on a government portal should not count as success. Announcing the number of people “empowered” should not count either. What should count is the number who obtained work, remained employed, earned more, completed recognised training or built businesses that survived.
Major public contracts should include targets for paid apprenticeships and entry-level employment. Contractors should be required to provide payroll and training records. Companies that repeatedly fail to meet their obligations should risk losing access to future contracts.
Nigeria also needs a national system for recognising technical and apprenticeship skills. Young people who acquire competence through traditional apprenticeships or master craftsmen should be able to undergo independent assessment and receive portable certificates. This would protect consumers, improve standards and give skilled workers evidence of what they can do.
Federal, state and local governments should publish annual statements showing how much money was budgeted for youth programmes, how much was released, who received it and what results were achieved. Too many programmes disappear after colourful launch ceremonies. Public money should be traced from the budget to the beneficiary and finally to the outcome.
An independent review of the pact should be presented each year to the National Assembly and state legislatures. Progress should be measured through a few serious indicators: fewer out-of-school children, better reading and mathematics skills, fewer young people outside employment and education, more paid apprenticeships, higher youth earnings, stronger businesses and greater youth participation in decision-making.
What cannot be measured can easily become propaganda.
Young Nigerians are already showing what they can do. They are building technology companies, producing music and films enjoyed around the world, running farms, treating patients, teaching children, learning trades and supporting families under extremely difficult conditions.
Many have succeeded in spite of public policy rather than because of it.
A country cannot build its future by celebrating only the exceptional young people who somehow escape a failing system. The real duty of government is to make opportunity ordinary.
The youth bulge is not a demographic bomb. It is a test of leadership.
If Nigeria invests in education, healthcare, security, infrastructure, decent work and political inclusion, its young population could become its greatest advantage. If it continues to offer speeches without pathways, training without jobs, elections without representation and programmes without accountability, frustration will deepen.
When millions of young people are denied education, employment and a meaningful voice in their country, the resulting instability should not be blamed on their age or character. It is the predictable price of bad policy.
Nigeria does not need fewer young people. It needs better decisions.
*AG Ahmed, MD, LLM, Forensic Psychiatrist, Professor and Chair of Psychiatry, College of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Canada